Attribution
Which part of the process adds value. Every score is graded against the return that followed; an IC of 0.05 held steadily is a useful equity signal.
Pre-registered hypotheses
Fixed on Oct 7, 2026, before the live record began. Each is judged only once its minimum sample is met.
H1
The PM composite ranks stocks: mean 5-day IC above zero with t-stat of at least 2.
Pending
0 / 120 graded days
H2
The agents add information: the composite's 5-day IC beats the equal-weight factor blend, t-stat of at least 2.
Pending
0 / 120 graded days
H3
The judge is calibrated: Brier score below 0.25, beating a judge that always says 50.
Pending
0 / 150 graded calls
H4
Names that clear 65 beat the S&P 500 over the next 21 sessions on average.
Pending
0 / 60 graded calls
H5
The earnings desk calls the 5-day direction correctly more than half the time.
Pending
0 / 80 graded reports
H6
The paper portfolio has a higher Sharpe ratio than the S&P 500 over the record.
Pending
0 / 250 sessions
Analyst leaderboard
| Agent | PM weight | IC, 5-day | t-stat | Days IC > 0 | IC, 21-day | t-stat, 21-day | Plain factor | Value added |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | - | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Momentum | - | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Quality | - | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Macro | - | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Risk | - | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| PM composite | - | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Plain factor and value added use the 5-day horizon. The PM composite is compared with an equal-weight blend of the five factors.
Rolling IC
20-day average, analyst against its own plain factor.
AnalystPlain factor
Nothing graded yetGrades start 5 trading days after the first run.
Core book judge
Calibrated bars sit on the line. 21-day horizon.
Beat S&P 500Avg conviction
No graded calls yetCalls are graded 21 trading days after the debate.
Earnings desk judge
Calibrated bars sit on the line. 5-day horizon.
Beat S&P 500Avg conviction
No graded calls yetCalls are graded 5 trading days after the debate.
Today's committee
. Each analyst's read, then every score behind the composite.